Cornwall’s care homes: a market outlook on demand and provision
In this article, Karun Ahluwalia (Director – Healthcare Consultancy at Christie & Co) shares some of the insights from Christie & Co’s ‘South West Healthcare Market Insight 2025’ report, which was published in June 2025. The report outlines the current stock, demand, and opportunities surrounding elderly care home beds across the South West, with a focus on the Cornwall market.
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LOCAL DEMOGRAPHICS
According to ONS Census data (2021), there are 591,696 people living in Cornwall. 26.5% of whom are 65 years of age or older, and 3.3% are 85 years of age or older.
Of this population, 42% own their homes outright, compared with 33% nationally. An additional 24% own with a mortgage or loan, slightly below the UK average of 30%. The average house price in the county is £341,587 - higher than the UK average (£298,571) and the South West average (£328,887). These elevated levels of affluence provide support for a sustainable private fee-paying market.
SUPPLY OF ELDERLY CARE HOMES
Between 2021 and 2025, nine homes closed (315 beds lost), and seven opened, contributing 66 new beds - 66 with wetrooms and 27% with en suites. This leaves Cornwall with 130 care homes, only 15% of which are purpose-built. The county also has a low proportion of elderly care homes with over 40 bed spaces in the UK, at just 26% compared with the national average of 47%. En suite provision is at 60%, while wetroom-equipped beds lag at just 9%, which is far below the UK benchmark of 34%.
As of June 2025, seven developments are underway (424 beds, with an average development size of 61 beds). Five approved extensions will add 99 beds, while three master plans and 13 early-stage developments signal further growth.
BED DEMAND
While these planned developments are positive, demand is forecasted to massively outstrip supply in Cornwall.
As of 2025, bed demand in Cornwall stands at 4,694. This figure is expected to grow to 5,423 by 2030 and reach 6,434 by 2035.
Our analysis – comparing fit-for-purpose supply with ever-growing demand for beds in Cornwall – forecasts that, by 2035, there will be a shortfall of 5,631 beds in Cornwall alone.
THE OPPORTUNITY
Unlike many parts of the UK, the South West region has historically been overlooked from a new build development perspective, primarily due to its remote geography and associated inability to cluster onto national providers’ existing footprints.
Smaller, converted homes are often well-placed to cater to their local markets, particularly in areas with lower population density. However, rising demand and a shortage of modern wetroom facilities present a strong opportunity for regional and corporate care operators to gain an early mover advantage by investing in new developments in the region. Alternatively, operators can look to retrofit or reconfigure older stock that may not align with the latest market standards, thereby enhancing their competitiveness and future-proofing the homes. With the sector evolving to meet growing demand, strategic investment in high-quality care facilities will not only address existing gaps but also position operators for long-term success in an increasingly competitive market.
To find out more, read the full 'South West Healthcare Market Insight 2025' report here.