2024 was the busiest year ever for deal completions reveals Christie & Co in latest report
Specialist business property adviser, Christie & Co, has today launched its Business Outlook 2025 report, which reflects on key market trends, transactional activity, and a look ahead at what 2025 may bring across the sectors in which Christie & Co-operates, including childcare and education, healthcare, hospitality, leisure, medical and retail.
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Market Activity and Key Challenges
Christie & Co reports that the UK market recovered during 2024, and business confidence increased as the repercussions of the 2022 mini-budget were unwound in 2024. This was despite concerns surrounding policy changes following the change in government.
2024 was the busiest year ever reported for deal completions at Christie & Co, with the company concluding over 1,100 transactions. Buyer appetite was also strong, particularly from independent buyers who remained ambitious to seek portfolio expansion opportunities.
The 2024 Autumn Budget revealed several unexpected changes, particularly the increase in employer National Insurance contributions which will majorly impact businesses when it takes effect in April 2025. Many businesses' ability to offset these costs onto consumers may no longer be possible after several years of high inflation and, as a result, Christie & Co predicts an increase in business distress over the next 12 months.
Christie & Co reports an overall fall in the average price of businesses it sold by 0.7 per cent in 2024 compared with 2023, as shown in the company’s annual price index. This reflects an increase in the number of corporate divestments at the lower value end of their portfolios, with first-time buyers and small independent groups remaining very acquisitive.
Average sale prices across each sector in 2024 were as follows:
Care: +1.0 per cent
Childcare: +7.7 per cent
Dental: a decrease of 0.6 per cent
Hotels: a decrease of 3.8 per cent
Pharmacy: a decrease of 6.3 per cent
Pubs: +0.7 per cent
Restaurants: a decrease of 7.9 per cent
Retail: +7.3 per cent
Market Sentiment and Distress Levels
The upward trend of distressed operational real estate situations witnessed in 2023 continued into 2024, and therefore the number of distressed businesses Christie & Co was instructed to sell was in 2024 in line with 2023.
Persistent inflationary pressures and the higher cost of servicing debt have been key factors impacting many businesses over the last few years, decreasing their operating margins and profitability. The Labour Government’s decision to increase employers’ National Insurance contributions, the National Living Wage and Minimum Wage, and a reduction in business rate relief from 75 per cent to 40 per cent for retail and leisure sectors will stifle growth for many SMEs and is likely to put further pressure on operational margins during 2025 and jeopardise investment.
Overall market sentiment for 2025 has decreased slightly in comparison to expectations for 2024, however, sale and acquisition plans for 2025 look promising. According to data from Christie & Co’s annual sentiment survey, 57 per cent of sector professionals have reported they feel positive or neutral for the year ahead, and 68 per cent reported they plan to buy and/or sell in 2025.
Capital Markets
2024 saw a notable increase in real estate capital markets activity across our specialist sectors – a trend we expect to continue in 2025.
Following a relatively subdued market environment in 2023, we saw activity steadily build throughout 2024 as investor confidence started to return. More capital has been looking to deploy with this increase in liquidity resulting in a number of sales processes being launched. Much of this has to do with a general acceptance from buyers and sellers that the current macroeconomic conditions broadly reflect the ‘new norm’, albeit with the welcome news of gradual reductions in the Bank of England base rate helping to boost confidence.
The cost and availability of capital remains a key determining factor with many existing investors looking to raise funds and some listed investors constrained by subdued share prices. This latter point includes funds located in the UK, USA and Europe where many have been actively asset managing throughout 2024 to create liquidity with a view to being in a position to start selectively buying during 2025.
Darren Bond, Global Managing Director at Christie & Co, comments, “2024 was a record year in terms of the volume of transactions handled by our team. That was despite the impact of a general election, the subsequent change in government and a subdued Autumn Budget. Our pipeline of deals under offer remains very encouraging, although we expect the increased tax burden on business to have an impact as we progress through the year. This May we will reach our 90th anniversary and we look forward to celebrating this milestone with clients and colleagues.”
Stephen Jacobs, Director – Bank Support & Business Recovery, comments, “Tax rises and cost pressures in 2025 will weigh most heavily on businesses already operating on the thinnest margins as a hangover from inflationary pressures and the higher cost of servicing debt. This will lead to a steady increase in demand for turnaround and restructuring support in the face of ongoing pressures and uncertainty.”
Mike Hodges, Managing Director – Capital Markets, comments, “Whilst the cost and availability of capital remain key themes as we enter 2025, investor appetite for opportunities within Christie & Co’s specialist sectors remains good, particularly those with a strong needs driven underpin. We anticipate a busy year ahead and look forward to the further development of our real estate investment activity across our European network”
Click here to read the full report: https://www.christie.com/news-resources/business-outlook-2025/
For further information on this press release, contact:
Fiona Fieldhouse, Director - Corporate Communications
P: + 44 7738 182 406 E: fiona.fieldhouse@christie.com
Niamh Toman, Corporate Communications Executive
P: +44 7768 646 984 E: niamh.toman@christie.com