Independent schools market predicted to stabilise after turbulent year, says Christie & Co report
Specialist business property adviser, Christie & Co, has launched its Business Outlook 2026 report, which reflects on the themes, activity and challenges of 2025 and forecasts what 2026 might bring across the sectors in which Christie & Co operates, including in the independent schools sector.
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The report begins by outlining the structure of the sector, which, as of government figures from December 2025, comprises over 2,500 schools, including 91 in Scotland, 2,456 in England, 85 in Wales, and 13 in Northern Ireland.
While there was no shortage of activity and notable deals in 2025, trade buyers and investors became increasingly selective with their acquisitions. The introduction of 20 per cent VAT on private school fees in January 2025, combined with the removal of business rates relief, increased National Insurance contributions, and ongoing Teachers’ Pension Scheme pressures, created widespread disruption, which saw Christie & Co record 38 independent school closures last year – a loss of 7,490 places, with closures disproportionately affecting preparatory schools.
It was also a pivotal year for corporate activity, takeovers, and mergers in the sector, including Outcomes First Group’s acquisition of five schools from Chatsworth Schools, EQT and a global consortium’s acquisition of Nord Anglia Education, and Blenheim Schools’ acquisition of Oxford Montessori Schools.
MARKET SENTIMENT
As part of its annual sentiment survey, the company surveyed childcare and education professionals across the country to gather their views on the year ahead.
When asked about their sentiment in 2025, 40 per cent said they feel positive, and 29 per cent feel negative, while 31 per cent remain neutral, which illustrates the uncertainty in the sector. When asked about their sale and acquisition plans, 75 per cent stated that they are looking to buy and/or sell this year.
PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
In 2026, Christie & Co expects:
- The focus for many surviving schools going forward is on pupil numbers and financial performance. With some operators prioritising growth strategies to support this, and parents also welcoming the convenience of single-site education, Christie & Co expects to see an increase in consolidation, which is reshaping operations as schools merge their primary sites with main campuses, releasing funds through asset sales and achieving operational savings
- While some more schools will close, there will be fewer closures in 2026
- Current student numbers are largely expected to stabilise, albeit new enrolments could remain at a much lower level for some schools than we’ve seen in prior years
- Continued market activity – comprising disposals, acquisitions and mergers - and the acquisition of closed independent schools by SEND operators
- Operators will continue to seek other income-earning opportunities and maintain a strong focus on current and new pupil numbers
Richard Green, Director and Lead Valuer for Childcare and Education at Christie & Co, comments, “We expect 2026 to be a turning point for the private independent school sector where trading levels start to show signs of stability and growth, ultimately resulting in more market activity than that seen in recent years.”
To read the full ‘Business Outlook 2026’ report, visit: https://www.christie.com/news-resources/business-outlook-2026/childcare/education/
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