Business Outlook 2026 | Christie Finance
In this section, we explore the finance market in 2025 and provide predictions for the sector in 2026.
Market Overview
SMEs continued to face challenging trading conditions throughout 2025, driven by the National Insurance contribution increases introduced in the 2024 Budget and persistent inflationary pressures.
Last year, we accurately predicted that the Bank of England base rate would close between 3.75% and 4% for 2025. Current sentiment suggests that 2026 will bring two to three rate cuts, potentially reducing the base rate to 3.25% to 3% by year-end. This would be a welcome development for both businesses and consumers, contingent on inflationary pressures easing in line with current forecasts.
Market Update
During 2025, interest rate margins from high street lenders narrowed, with competitive margins of 1.10% to 1.50% above base rate secured for high-quality funding propositions. These tighter margins, combined with the reduction in the base rate, have helped offset some of the financial strain faced by SME operators.
Demand for our services reached an all-time high in 2025, with growth in finance applications across all business sectors. Overall debt levels were approximately 20% higher than the previous year. Our term debt and unsecured divisions saw particularly strong activity in the care and medical sectors, while lending appetite for hospitality businesses improved significantly.
John Mitchell
Managing Director - Christie Finance
Market Sentiment
We anonymously surveyed business owners and professionals across the country to understand where their investment is most likely to be focused in the year ahead.
Market Predictions for 2026
- Despite ongoing economic and political uncertainty, traditional high street lenders are expected to continue improving their offerings for SMEs and property investors.
- Challenger banks, new entrants, and private funds will maintain their focus on niche areas of SME lending across term debt and unsecured business lending.
- As the Bank of England base rate declines, refinancing existing debt facilities will become increasingly attractive and attainable.
- While financial incentives remain modest, ESG policies will gain greater relevance for businesses seeking funding from mainstream lenders.
Case Studies
Rectory House Care Home, West Sussex
We delivered a second successful care home transaction for a repeat client, securing multiple funding options and guiding them to the most cost-efficient choice. Despite significant challenges with their incumbent bank, we protected the deal, managed all parties, and restructured terms to save £100,000. Our proactive approach ensured timely completion and strengthened a trusted client relationship.
Driving growth for a leading dental practice in Leicestershire
We successfully secured £500,000 funding for a leading Leicestershire dental practice, enabling expansion from 11 to 15 surgeries and creating a state-of-the-art facility. By managing the project end-to-end with suppliers and contractors, we delivered ahead of schedule. This milestone transforms a modest three-surgery site into one of the UK’s most advanced dental practices.